The Move From Inflation To Deflation Has Already Begun

The Move From Inflation To Deflation Has Already Begun

I've been thinking about why China might have decided to reverse course this week on "common prosperity" and support their big tech companies, sending the stocks of those companies rocketing higher.  Why now? I keep coming back to the same chilling conclusion.  Our Russian financial sanctions have essentially rendered the currency of another...

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The Move From Inflation To Deflation Has Already Begun

A Letter to Clients and Friends: January 2022

In the now almost two years since the beginning of the pandemic, it has often been said that its effects would accelerate already existing trends.  The asymmetry of risk and return in a world pulled in alternate directions by geopolitical forces, more than a decade of experimental expansionary monetary policy, the approaching fiscal cliff of...

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A Letter to Clients and Friends: June 2021

A Letter to Clients and Friends: June 2021

Our March quarterly letter focused on the severe correction in growth stock valuations resulting from the doubling of the yield on ten year US treasuries.  Higher rates mean that future earnings become relatively less valuable.  But that time tested corollary assumes that the market correctly anticipates the actual level and timing of...

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A Letter to Clients and Friends: June 2021

A Letter to Clients and Friends: March 2021

Sometimes investors focus on the long view; other times, events, real or imagined, cause views to compress dramatically.  It’s always easy to reflect through the rearview mirror once the pendulum swings, but the difficulty in doing so as events are unfolding is sometimes obscured by emotion or by the sheer enormity of the information inputs...

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A Letter to Clients and Friends: June 2021

A Letter to Clients and Friends: January 2021

As we close the books on 2020 and enter the new year, it may be instructive to spend some time thinking about what got us here; how, in the midst of so much pain, can the stock market be at all time highs and at such lofty valuations? Of course, there is the Federal Reserve.  Fully 78% of all the dollars ever printed in the United States,...

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A Letter to Clients and Friends: June 2021

A Letter to Clients and Friends: November 2020

As I write this letter, COVID 19 reported case counts have hit daily records in excess of 80,000 and the on again, off again, negotiations on another government stimulus seem to be…off again.  More than 11 million Americans find themselves unemployed, and Pfizer announced earnings this morning without any statement as to the efficacy of...

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